Dear Clients and Friends, The first quarter of 2025 is behind us and we wish all of you a happy start to the spring. Technology stocks remain under pressure and the Volatility Index (VIX), or as some call the fear gauge for the stock market, remains elevated. 2024 was a remarkably stable year in the …
Reasons to Stay the Course
Dear Clients and Friends, As volatility in the markets pick up we wanted to send out some information to help bring these events into context and hopefully allay to some degree the unnerving nature of these movements. There has been much discussion about the Nasdaq, which is an index of technology companies, and how it …
Interest Rates, M2, and Central Bank Balance Sheets
You may have heard financial pundits say the stock market follows the bond market, and in many ways they are right. The correlation between interest rate movements on the 10-year treasury and the broad stock indices is as strong as ever. It works like this. Rates go up on the 10-year treasury, bond and stock …
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My 2 Cents on Market Predictions
As we celebrate the holiday season, the team at Bauer Heitzmann extend our warmest wishes to you and your families. We are deeply grateful for your continued trust and partnership, and we value the opportunity to be a part of your financial journey. At the beginning of 2024, JP Morgan predicted a down year for the stock …
When the Yield Curve is Inverted
Fall is in the air and we have no shortage of interesting developments in the markets. Investors are keeping a close eye on the election, core inflation numbers, big tech earnings (specifically large expenditures around artificial intelligence R&D), and any further reduction in short term interest rates that the Fed is likely to do before the …
Permanent Price Increases
The investment market remains resilient amidst a backdrop of mixed economic signals. While corporate earnings have generally exceeded expectations, concerns about economic growth and persistent inflation persist. The tech sector continues to lead the rally, fueled by strong earnings and enthusiasm around artificial intelligence. As we enter the month of September, the most important thing …
All Eyes on the Economy
The markets finished last week clearly rattled by a combination of a weaker labor market and corporate tech earnings missing Wall Street expectations. The economy is clearly slowing and the unexpected rise in the unemployment rate was a major catalyst in the current stock market pullback. As of 8/5/2024, here is a snapshot of the …
The Volatility Index
The first half of 2024 wrapped up on Friday with total returns looking a lot like they have for the past 18 months - the Magnificent 7 outperforming the broader stock market, and with inflation (and therefore interest rates) higher for longer, bonds remain mostly in the red. Here is a quick snapshot of the main stock …
The Rule of 72
Many of you have likely heard of the adage, "the Rule of 72." It's used frequently in the investing world because it provides a simple way for calculating how long it will take for an investment to double in value. You simply take the assumed annual rate of return (typically 10% for the historical S&P …
High Quality International
Since last months update, the stock market has experienced a pullback and bond prices continue to push lower with medium and long-term interest rates moving higher. As of this writing here is where those two markets stand: Stocks: S&P 500: 5% Nasdaq: 4.5% Russell 2000: -1% Bonds: Aggregate Bond Index: -4% Short Term Index: -1% …